An internal report from Poland’s border guard reveals that attempts by migrants and asylum seekers crossing from Belarus into Poland and neighboring Baltic states remain high, with over 17,800 cases detected in Poland so far this year.
Increased Pressure Along the Poland-Belarus Border
The data covering January 1st to September 17th, 2023 shows over 17,800 instances of migrants attempting or successfully crossing irregularly from Belarus into Poland, over double the 2022 figure for the same period.
The majority were prevented from entering, with over 16,000 cases recorded.
Nearly 400 migrants were detained, and decisions to leave Poland were issued to over 1,200 people after crossing, mainly Syrian and Afghan nationals.
Poland’s border barrier with Belarus has aimed to curb such crossings since its completion in 2022.
However, critics argue that the ongoing high numbers show the barrier remains “leaky.”
Poland’s border guard insists that it has been effective at detection and prevention.
Onward Travel into Germany
The report also gives indications that many migrants move onwards into Germany after entering Poland from Belarus.
Around 500 were caught at the Polish-German border, while nearly 13,000 detained in Germany close to the Polish boundary were assessed to have likely entered from Belarus.
Migration Flows Shift Between Baltic Borders
Attempted crossings from Belarus dropped in Lithuania year-on-year but increased significantly in Latvia, suggesting shifts in the flows along Baltic borders.
Over 1,600 were stopped at the Lithuania-Belarus boundary and over 8,700 in Latvia.
Germany’s Border Controls Prompt Wider Response
With numbers detected entering Germany still rising, Berlin implemented temporary checks on arrivals from Poland and the Czech Republic last September.
That triggered similar actions by Poland on its border with Slovakia in October.
Travelers Face More Border Checks
With various countries implementing additional border checks, visitors to Europe planning multi-country trips face more potential for delays and disruption.
Those reliant on the borderless Schengen area for tourism, study abroad, or business travel should anticipate stricter document and security screening. Border queues and wait times could increase.
The upcoming 2025 launch of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) also means travelers to Europe will require pre-approval in the form of the ETIAS visa waiver.
With instability ongoing, ensuring ETIAS applications are thoroughly vetted before entry will likely be a priority.
Policies Under Pressure
As the EU states struggle to cope, migration policy reforms could occur to strengthen external borders and harmonize processing systems.
Frontline countries might push fellow member states to assist more with asylum claims or resettlement through quota schemes.
Nations implementing temporary border controls have emphasized these are a last resort to handle sudden pressures.
However, with some controls already extended repeatedly, permanent changes to passport-free Schengen access cannot be ruled out entirely if problems persist long-term.
There could also be efforts to streamline and speed up the processing of asylum applications, deportations of failed claims, and implementation of the ETIAS for screening travelers pre-arrival.
A Path Forward
The developments show Belarus’ “hybrid attack” involving encouraging irregular migration into the European Union (EU) continues to place strains on European borders and relations between member states.
While barriers like Poland’s are preventing many crossings, the ongoing pressures and movements within Europe’s borderless Schengen area test cooperation and prompt unilateral responses.
With no signs of the situation easing soon, the crisis looks set to continue taxing European solidarity and ingenuity.