The Netherlands is facing a major dilemma in dealing with its rapidly aging population.
Research in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health provides that by 2040, there will be far fewer working people compared to pensioners, putting strains on government budgets for healthcare, pensions, and more.
Two Main Options
In a recent report, the government’s Advisory Council on Migration (ACM) laid out two primary options for addressing this demographic challenge: significantly increasing immigration or having the existing workforce extend working hours and delay retirement.
ACM calculates that admitting an extra 50,000 immigrant workers per year would be comparable to every employed Dutch person working an additional 10 minutes per week.
Alternatively, it would have a similar budget impact as raising the retirement age by three-and-a-half months.
Mass Immigration Unrealistic
However, the Council deems large-scale immigration unrealistic, projecting a need for some three million new immigrants by 2040 to fully counteract the graying workforce.
ACM Chair Monique Kremer notes the country may even have unemployment challenges by 2040 as population dynamics shift.
Targeting High-Skilled Workers
Instead, the Council recommends focused immigration policies targeting highly skilled professionals earning over €40,000.
These generate outsized economic benefits, with each one indirectly creating additional local jobs.
Concerns Over Reliance on Cheap Foreign Labor
Some experts warn against over-reliance on cheap imported labor though, which may allow some industries to underpay workers.
According to Paul de Beer, on his interview in de Volkskrant, priority should be enhancing pay and conditions to attract more native Dutch employees where possible.
The findings are likely to spark continued debate across the political spectrum.
The four parties currently in coalition talks — PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB — have all advocated reductions in foreign worker admissions.
What Could This Mean for EU Travelers?
The report's findings may have implications for people hoping to visit or settle in the Netherlands long-term.
With political parties advocating immigration reductions, obtaining the ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System) visa waiver or securing residency rights could become more complicated.
The ETIAS, in particular, launching in 2025, could see tighter screening.
Lengthy stays for families, investors, digital nomads, and students from the EU may also face more hurdles depending on future policies.
EU Immigration Policy Changes Possible
If the Netherlands successfully reduces immigrant worker reliance, other EU states grappling with ageing populations like Germany, Italy, and Spain could follow suit.
This could mean bloc-wide ripple effects, making ETIAS authorization and general EU immigration channels more restrictive.
Working Longer a Likely Necessity
With immigration unlikely to fully bridge demographic gaps, the population faces a choice between working more hours before retirement or pushing back retirement ages further.
Most experts agree some combination will be required to maintain fiscal stability as the population ages.
Though no easy solutions exist, clear policy actions will be needed to address this looming societal challenge.
The Council’s report highlights key options and tradeoffs the next government must grapple with.