Germany saw the highest level of net immigration ever recorded in 2022, largely driven by an influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine.
Over 2.7 million people immigrated to the country, while only around 1.2 million emigrated, resulting in net immigration reaching 1.5 million according to new government data.
Influx from Ukraine Accounts for Significant Share
According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees’ (BAMF) Migration Report 2022 published on January 10th, 41% of all immigrants last year came from Ukraine alone.
This includes mostly women and children who have fled the ongoing conflict with Russia which began in early 2022.
After Ukrainian refugees, the most common countries of origin for immigrants were Romania, Poland, and Türkiye.
The war has led to a substantial increase in humanitarian migration, with close to 218,000 asylum applications submitted in Germany last year — a 47% jump from 2021.
Family reunification and moves for education or jobs also contributed to the growth in immigration.
Immigrants Now Make Up Over 20% of Population
With consistently high immigration, the proportion of Germany’s population with migrant backgrounds continues to rise.
As of 2022, over 20.2 million German residents were either immigrants themselves or born to two immigrant parents — totaling around 18% of the overall population.
When including second-generation immigrants with one foreign-born parent, the share grows even larger to 28.7% or 23.8 million people living in migrant households.
On average, immigrants have now lived in Germany for about 21 years, but over one-third have resided in the country for less than a decade highlighting the major recent waves of new arrivals.
Call for Long-Term Planning as Crisis Persists
Nearly two years since Russia first attacked Ukraine, policy experts are underscoring the need to develop viable long-term solutions for Ukrainian refugees.
Temporary EU protection granted to fleeing Ukrainians expires in March 2025, meaning millions could potentially lose legal residence status across Europe in just over a year.
Jan Schneider of the Expert Council on Integration and Migration stated that especially with European elections upcoming in mid-2024, cross-border political coordination is essential to balance the interests of both Ukraine and refugee host countries like Germany which have already invested heavily in integration schemes.
Some solutions put forth include facilitating ongoing circular mobility between Ukraine and the European Union (EU) and providing paths to permanent legal status.
Failure to reach an agreement risks overburdening asylum systems Schneider warned, if large numbers of Ukrainians submit last-minute individual protection claims when temporary status ends.
ETIAS Approval Could Be Impacted by Policy Changes
The unfolding refugee crisis and immigration policy developments in Germany could have implications for travelers to the EU needing to secure approval via the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) set to launch in May 2025.
As immigration concerns mount, EU officials may potentially heighten ETIAS screening to more closely evaluate entrants for overstay risks and ensure travelers align with evolving national policies.
The borderless Schengen Area also means changes in Germany spill over across the bloc.
Long-Term Move Complications May Arise
Meanwhile, non-EU nationals considering longer-term relocation to Germany for work, study, or family such as digital nomads, students, and expat families face a fluid landscape as well.
Restrictive policy changes in response to mounting immigration could complicate visa processes and narrow paths to permanent settlement rights.
With German immigration already at record highs, applicants in coming years may encounter heightened requirements, longer application times, and lower approval rates if de facto caps emerge.
The interplay of the Ukrainian refugee crisis, pre-existing labor shortages, and a declining domestic population makes immigration a complex balancing act for policymakers.
Integration and Reconstruction Planning Needed
With Germany continuing to welcome high numbers of Ukrainian refugees and other immigrants, policymakers face increasing pressure to develop robust longer-term solutions surrounding legal status, labor market integration, and potential reconstruction efforts as the crisis continues to unfold.
Striking a balance between supporting fleeing Ukrainians while also meeting Germany’s own economic and demographic needs will likely remain an evolving, complex challenge.