The European Union’s (EU) population has grown for the second year in a row, reaching 449.2 million in January 2024.
This growth is due to more people moving to the EU after COVID-19 and the influx of displaced persons from Ukraine.
EU population growth defies recent trends
The EU's population has grown by 1.6 million people between January 2023 and January 2024.
This increase comes after a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic when the population decreased by around 800,000 people between 2020 and 2021.
Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, attributes this resurgence to two main factors:
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More people moving to the EU in the post-COVID-19 period
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The influx of displaced persons from Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in February 2022
These demographic shifts have important implications for EU member states, affecting economic planning and social services.
Migration the key driver of population growth
While the EU has more deaths than births, the positive net migration has more than compensated for this deficit.
Migration has become the main reason for the EU’s population growth, making it the primary factor in shaping the region’s population numbers.
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Uneven growth across EU member states
Even though the overall EU population has increased, not all countries have experienced growth.
The data reveals a stark contrast between member states:
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Spain led the pack with an impressive increase of 525,100 people.
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Germany and France followed with gains of 330,000 and 229,000 respectively.
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Poland saw the largest decrease, losing 132,800 residents.
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Greece and Hungary also experienced population declines.
These differences show the complex demographic challenges that the EU faces, with some countries struggling to maintain their population levels while others experience rapid growth.
Long-term demographic trends
Viewing the EU’s population growth from a historical perspective provides valuable context.
Since 1960, the EU’s population has grown by 94.7 million people, which is a 26.7% increase.
However, the rate of growth has slowed considerably in recent decades:
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1960s: Average annual increase of 2.9 million people
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2015-2024: Average annual increase of 0.6 million people
This slowdown in population growth has significant implications for the EU’s future, especially for the workforce and social welfare systems.
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Adjustments to border management
The recent population growth in the EU might affect visitors and immigrants, including those who will use the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) or apply for Schengen visas.
The ETIAS system, which will be implemented in 2025, aims to improve security for short-term visitors. However, the overall population increase might change how the EU manages its borders and processes visitors.
For long-term travelers and immigrants, such as families, investors, digital nomads, and students, population growth could have different effects. It might lead to increased competition for resources and opportunities in popular destination countries.
However, it could also mean a strong economy and diverse cultural experiences in growing urban centers.
More nuanced approaches to immigration management
The recent population statistics will likely affect EU immigration policies at both the Union level and in individual countries.
Because migration has helped balance the natural population decline, there may be more detailed approaches to managing immigration.
For the ETIAS and Schengen systems, there might be pressure to speed up processes to accommodate more visitors and short-term residents. However, security will still be a priority, so there may be stricter screening procedures.
At the national level, countries with population growth may change their immigration policies to better manage new residents.
On the other hand, countries with population decline might create more favorable immigration policies to attract newcomers and encourage growth.
Challenges and opportunities
As the EU’s population keeps growing, mostly through migration, policymakers face both challenges and opportunities.
They need to help new residents fit in, keep communities united, and improve infrastructure to support more people.
The arrival of new residents also brings fresh ideas, skills, and cultural diversity to the EU. Using these assets could lead to innovation, economic growth, and cultural enrichment across the region.
The recent population growth, driven by post-COVID migration and geopolitical events, marks a significant change in the EU’s population.
As policymakers deal with these changes, the coming years will likely see new approaches to immigration, integration, and social policies.