Europe’s migration landscape is changing rapidly.
Recent data reveals a complex picture of decreasing irregular border crossings alongside rising numbers of people under temporary protection, reshaping the continent's approach to migration and asylum.
Dramatic drop in irregular border crossings
The European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, reports a significant decrease in irregular border crossings into the European Union (EU).
In the first seven months of 2024, the number of detected crossings fell by 36% compared to the same period in 2023, totaling 113,400 attempts.
This decline is particularly pronounced in two key areas:
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The Western Balkans route saw a 75% decrease, with just over 12,400 detections.
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The Central Mediterranean route experienced a 64% drop, though it remains the most active pathway into the EU.
Frontex attributes the decrease in the Central Mediterranean to “preventive measures by the Tunisian and Libyan authorities to disrupt the activities of smugglers.”
These two countries account for 95% of all migrants reported on this route.
Shifting patterns across other routes
While some routes saw declines, others experienced increases:
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The Western African route, leading to the Canary Islands, saw a staggering 154% increase, with over 21,600 arrivals.
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The Eastern Mediterranean route became the second most active, with arrivals up by 57% to almost 29,700.
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The Eastern Land Borders noted a significant 195% increase to around 9,500 arrivals.
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The Channel route saw a 22% increase, reaching 33,183 detections.
These figures highlight the fluid nature of migration patterns, as people seeking entry to the EU adapt to changing circumstances and border controls.
(Image courtesy of Raimond Spekking via Wikimedia Commons)
Temporary protection numbers soar
While irregular crossings decreased, the number of people under temporary protection in the EU reached new heights, according to Eurostat.
As of June 30th, 2024, approximately 4.3 million non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine due to the Russian war of aggression were granted temporary protection status.
The distribution of these individuals across EU countries varies:
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Germany hosts the largest number, with 1,347,525 people (31.2% of the EU total)
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Poland follows with 965,775 (22.4%)
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Czechia hosts 360,775 (8.4%)
Relative to population size, Czechia, Lithuania, and Poland have the highest ratios of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people.
Who are the temporary protection beneficiaries?
The demographic breakdown of those under temporary protection is revealing:
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Over 98% are Ukrainian citizens
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Adult women make up 45.6% of the total
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Children account for nearly one-third (32.4%)
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Adult men comprise slightly more than a fifth (22.0%)
This distribution reflects the nature of the displacement caused by the conflict in Ukraine, with many families seeking safety in neighboring countries.
(Image courtesy of Kamil Czaiński via Wikimedia Commons)
Top nationalities of irregular migrants
While Ukrainians dominate the temporary protection figures, the top three nationalities attempting irregular border crossings in 2024 are:
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Syria
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Mali
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Afghanistan
This highlights the ongoing global nature of migration pressures, with conflicts and instability in various regions continuing to drive people towards Europe.
Impacts on visitors and migrants
The changing migration landscape has significant implications for both short-term visitors and long-term migrants to the EU.
With the upcoming launch of the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS), travelers from visa-exempt countries will face new requirements.
This system aims to enhance security while facilitating legitimate travel, potentially affecting tourism and business visits.
For long-term migrants and asylum seekers, the decrease in irregular crossings might lead to changes in processing times and reception conditions.
Countries with fewer arrivals may have more resources to dedicate to integration programs and asylum claim processing, potentially benefiting those already in the system.
Shaping EU immigration policy
These trends are likely to influence EU countries’ immigration policies in several ways:
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Reinforced external border control: The success in reducing irregular crossings may lead to continued investment in border surveillance and cooperation with neighboring countries.
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Focus on legal pathways: With fewer irregular entries, there may be more political will to expand legal migration channels, especially for skilled workers needed in aging European societies.
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Temporary protection mechanisms: The large-scale use of temporary protection for Ukrainians might serve as a model for future crises, allowing for quick responses to mass displacements.
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Integration efforts: With millions under temporary protection, EU countries may need to develop more robust integration programs, potentially benefiting all migrants in the long run.
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Burden-sharing discussions: The uneven distribution of both irregular migrants and those under temporary protection may reignite debates about fair distribution mechanisms across EU member states.
As Europe navigates these complex migration trends, policymakers face the challenge of balancing humanitarian obligations with border security concerns.
The coming years will likely see continued evolution in EU migration policies as they adapt to this dynamic landscape.
Looking ahead
The shifting patterns of migration in 2024 present both challenges and opportunities for the European Union.
As irregular crossings decrease and temporary protection numbers stabilize, there is potential for a more managed and humane approach to migration.
However, the root causes driving people to seek safety and opportunity in Europe remain. Addressing these underlying issues will be crucial for any long-term solution to the ongoing migration situation.