In the third quarter of 2023, the number of non-EU citizens ordered to leave the European Union (EU) decreased by 4% compared to the same period last year.
However, the number of returns saw a notable 12% increase, according to new data from Eurostat.
Orders to Leave See a Slight Dip
Between July and September 2023, around 107,135 non-EU citizens received orders to leave EU countries, marking a 4% decrease from Q3 2022.
Moroccan nationals accounted for 8% of total orders to leave, followed by 7% for both Syrian and Algerian citizens.
Afghanistan, Türkiye, and Georgia citizens comprised 6% and 5% respectively.
France led with 29,885 orders to leave, trailed by Germany (11,470) and Greece (9,545).
Returns Surge by 12%
In contrast, 27,095 non-EU citizens were returned to another country in Q3 2023 based on orders to leave, up 12% from the same period last year.
Eighty-one percent (81%) of those returned were sent to non-EU countries.
Georgian nationals made up 11% of total returns, while Albanian and Turkish citizens accounted for 7% each.
Germany saw the most returns at 4,100, followed by Sweden (2,865) and France (2,850).
Driving Factors Behind the Shift
The shift likely reflects evolving migration policies and enforcement strategies in the EU.
Strengthened border controls and rising social tensions may be prompting more returns.
At the same time, complex bureaucratic processes and cooperation with non-EU countries on readmission can slow orders to leave.
The impacts of the Ukraine conflict on migration flows have also been complex.
The Road Ahead
As the EU grapples with ongoing migration challenges, the data provides key insights.
The ability to swiftly process orders to leave while upholding legal norms will remain crucial.
Cooperation with third countries is also vital to ensure humane and dignified returns aligned with international standards.
Effective integration policies for legal migrants further underpin social cohesion.
Balancing controlled borders with human rights obligations remains the EU’s complex balancing act on the migration issue.
The Q3 2023 data highlights the nuances at play.
How EU Visitors and Immigrants Could Be Impacted
The data has implications for both EU visitors and immigrants.
For visitors, no immediate changes to the upcoming ETIAS scheme are expected.
ETIAS is set to launch in May 2025. It will require pre-travel authorization for visa-exempt visitors, facilitating screening.
The Q3 trends are unlikely to accelerate or delay this timeline.
However, for immigrants, particularly from highly-returned countries like Georgia and Albania, more returns could influence future visa processes.
There may be more scrutiny or requirements to prove strong ties to countries of origin.
The trends could also impact flows of long-term immigrants like digital nomads, students, and families.
If returns rise consistently, the EU may incrementally tighten some visa channels.
However, major dramatic shifts are unlikely in the near-term.
Shifts in EU Immigration Policy on the Horizon?
The data also hints at shifts within EU immigration policymaking.
The uptick in returns suggests stronger enforcement of existing policies on removing those without valid claims to remain.
This could lay the groundwork for gradual tightening of broader immigration policies.
With returns demonstrating capacity, the EU may look to bolster external border controls, accelerate asylum procedures, or add checks on visa channels.
However, a balanced approach is essential.
Expediting removals shouldn’t compromise due process or humanitarian rights.
Whichever direction EU immigration policy evolves, upholding rule of law and humane practices is vital.
The Q3 return trends will certainly generate discussion, but major dramatic shifts in the ETIAS, Schengen area, or general immigration policies remain unlikely in the short-term.
Measured, evidence-based reforms will be the EU’s path forward.
Signs of a Pivotal Moment
The Q3 2023 statistics point to a potential shifting tide on EU migration enforcement.
However, realizing smooth, lawful, and ethical returns at scale remains an immense challenge.
This data marks just one quarter’s snapshot, but the notable rise in returns could signal a pivotal moment if the upward trend continues.
The months ahead will prove whether this shift reflects durable new capacities, or transient factors that could reverse course.
As the EU responds, upholding human rights norms while addressing legitimate public concerns will be paramount.