Irregular migration into the European Union (EU) dropped by 39% in the first eight months of 2024.
However, political debates and changing routes show that the issue is still complicated, with new challenges ahead.
Fewer migrants, stronger borders
According to Frontex, unauthorized crossings at EU borders dropped significantly in 2024. From January to August, there were 139,847 crossings, which is 39% less than the same time in 2023.
The biggest drops were on the Western Balkans and Central Mediterranean routes, where crossings fell by 77% and 64%. This decrease is mainly due to better cooperation between the EU and countries like Tunisia, Libya, and Türkiye.
Fast boats, new routes
While some migration routes saw fewer crossings, others became more active.
Crossings on the Eastern Mediterranean route, which mainly brings migrants to Greek islands, went up by 39%, reaching 37,163. Smugglers have responded to tougher border enforcement by using faster boats, making it harder to catch them.
The West African route to the Canary Islands also saw a sharp increase, with arrivals rising by 123% to over 25,500.
(Image courtesy of Ricardo Castrodad via Wikimedia Commons)
Mediterranean crossings fall, but migrant struggles mount
The sharp decline in unauthorized crossings on major migration routes is mostly thanks to the EU’s work with partners like Tunisia and Libya to reduce irregular migration.
These agreements have been key in stopping smugglers on the Central Mediterranean route.
However, these actions have had a human cost, with reports of migrants being left stranded in the desert after crackdowns, showing the risks involved in these policies.
Eastern land borders see rising arrivals
Migrant arrivals at the Eastern Land Borders saw a dramatic increase, rising by 193% in the first eight months of 2024.
This is partly because migrants are trying new routes into the EU as traditional ones become harder to use.
With rising political tensions in countries along this route, migrants are at greater risk of exploitation and violence, making their journey more dangerous.
(Image courtesy of Alxey Pnferov via iStock)
EU travel set for a shake-up
Recent changes directly affect travelers and migrants heading to the EU. For tourists and short-term visitors, stricter border controls may lead to longer wait times and tougher checks at entry points.
Starting in 2025, the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) will require non-EU visitors to get pre-approval before entering Schengen countries.
For long-term visitors, such as migrants and asylum seekers, the situation is more complicated. While fewer people are arriving on certain routes, those who do face more scrutiny and legal challenges.
Asylum seekers may find it harder to enter Europe due to stricter border controls and political pressure to reduce unauthorized migration.
New immigration crossroads
The decline in irregular border crossings has led European policymakers to rethink their immigration strategies.
While countries like Germany have increased border controls due to rising political tensions, others are trying to balance the need for migrant labor with growing anti-immigration views.
Despite the political climate, Europe’s aging population and labor shortages make migrants essential to keeping the economy running.
At the same time, political discussions around migration have become more heated, with far-right parties gaining support in several European countries.
These changes are expected to influence future immigration policies as governments try to manage borders while also addressing the economic needs of an aging population.
What’s next?
The sharp drop in irregular border crossings into the EU in 2024 is a key moment for European migration policy. However, as some routes become quieter, others are seeing more activity, showing how smugglers and migrants keep adapting.
As the EU adjusts its border strategies, the upcoming ETIAS system and changes in immigration policies will likely shape the future of migration in Europe. Balancing security with humanitarian needs will continue to be a major challenge moving forward.