After over a decade of efforts, Bulgaria and Romania’s bid to join the Schengen area faces yet another pivotal moment.
A decision is expected by the end of 2023 that could finally allow both countries into the border control-free zone or prolong their wait.
The Issues at Stake
Bulgaria and Romania have technically met all required reforms and conditions to enter Schengen since 2011.
However, opposition from a small number of member states has repeatedly foiled their accession attempts over concerns about judicial corruption and irregular migration.
Austria has firmly opposed both bids due to the high numbers of migrants and asylum seekers that cross its borders.
The Netherlands has also raised rule of law concerns specific to Bulgaria.
Meanwhile, Bulgaria and Romania have actively tried to assuage these worries through continued reforms and bilateral diplomacy. They argue that their accession will strengthen rather than weaken Schengen.
The Long Wait Taking Its Toll
Over a decade stranded outside Schengen has inflicted substantial costs on Bulgaria and Romania economically and socially.
Citizens of both countries face delays, bureaucracy, and extra expenses when traveling abroad. Romanian and Bulgarian truck drivers can wait hours to days at borders compared to ten minutes on average without checks.
Experts estimate 46,000 tons of CO2 are emitted annually from vehicles stuck at borders, damaging the environment. The health of drivers and border residents also suffers from increased pollution.
The European Parliament and Commission estimate the prolonged wait has resulted in major economic opportunity costs. It also enables anti-EU propaganda and undermines the bloc’s influence globally.
Accession Attempts
Bulgaria and Romania were denied entry into Schengen in 2011 and have sought accession ever since.
The recent breakthrough came on January 1, 2023, when the EU approved Croatia’s membership, but again rejected Bulgaria and Romania.
Austria cited improperly functioning external borders as a reason to deny both bids.
The Netherlands raised concerns about Bulgarian judicial independence and corruption.
The rejections caused deep dismay in Sofia and Bucharest.
Younger generations especially see it as unjust discrimination that could sour their view of the EU.
The European Parliament and Commission firmly back Bulgaria and Romania’s bids. The Parliament passed a resolution blasting the continued refusals as lacking legal justification.
What’s Next?
Under its rotating EU presidency ending December 2023, Spain has promised to hold another vote on accepting Bulgaria and Romania.
The 5 December meeting of justice and home affairs ministers currently includes their bids as a possibility.
Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov and the European Parliament President Roberta Metsola insist the wait has gone on too long. They argue denying entry further would be unacceptable and demotivating.
In reaction, Austria maintains its opposition. However, its president has expressed hope for a positive outcome.
The Netherlands may approve Bulgaria’s bid if the remaining rule of law conditions are met.
Impacts on Travelers and Immigrants
Bulgaria and Romania’s accession to Schengen would substantially ease travel for EU citizens. Tourists and other short-stay visitors from Schengen countries could enter without passport checks.
Long-term immigrants like digital nomads, students, and families could also benefit from fewer borders. However, they would still need regular national visas and permits to legally reside and work.
All travelers would stand to gain from faster border crossings and lower transport costs as delays and bureaucracy decrease.
However, the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) requirement would still apply to visitors from eligible countries outside the EU starting May 2025.
Impacts on Immigration Policy
Bulgaria and Romania’s membership would not directly affect EU immigration laws or policies.
National rules on long-term immigration and asylum procedures would remain governed solely by individual member states.
However, it would expand the borderless Schengen zone to over 400 million citizens across 29 countries.
This could augment calls to strengthen external borders and cooperation on irregular migration and asylum issues.
Conversely, their accession could demonstrate Schengen’s viability despite migrant influxes.
This would weaken the external border security argument against expansion.
Austria and other skeptical states may also face reduced grounds to continue objecting to Romania and Bulgaria’s membership if the next vote approves them.
The Final Verdict
Over a decade since meeting technical requirements, Bulgaria and Romania may finally be on the cusp of joining Schengen if a majority of member states consent.
Their accession would signal the EU keeping its promise of eventual full integration. It would also benefit travelers and businesses through fewer borders and obstacles.
However, a negative outcome continuing the status quo cannot be discounted. Austria and the Netherlands still harbor doubts that bilateral efforts may fail to dispel decisively.
The December vote will thus set the tone on whether the EU’s borderless future includes Bulgaria and Romania or leaves them stranded as outliers.